14th June 2019

After a tumultuous Q 4 18 2019 began with great optimism at the prospect of yet another central bank reflation Indeed the market grew palpably giddy when January’s aggregate social financing numbers were released in China If this was a sign of things to come then the global economy was back in business Such optimism, we felt (and […] more

12th April 2019

The continuation of the drop in global bond yields has been a feature of 2019. Much of this has been driven by the marked turnaround in the monetary policy stance of the US Federal Reserve. Whilst changes in certain economic and financial indicators (PMI, Retail sales, US yield curve) support this shift in outlook, other […] more

19th March 2019

2019 has so far been very positive for risk assets, despite a backdrop of slowing global growth. Much of this has been driven by heightened market expectations of a renewed global stimulus drive. We explain why we do not believe this will be forthcoming and examine some of the longer term factors impacting global growth. […] more

11th January 2019

2018 was a turbulent period for asset prices as markets transitioned from a period of “synchronised” global growth to an environment of declining central bank liquidity and political unrest. While it remains to be seen if 2019 will bring more of the same, we do believe it will provide greater opportunities for active investors. Click […] more

5th December 2018

What a difference a week can make. Having been some way off normalised rates only a few days ago, now (apparently) we are almost there. While some market participants may feel vindicated in their prediction of a change in pace from the Fed, there are still a number of questions to be answered before the […] more

13th November 2018

With the FED ready for its fourth rate hike in December and global growth concerns increasing and feeding into the global financial markets, Senior Portfolio Strategist Antonio Del Favero looks at the leading drivers of the sell-off in emerging markets and of the double spike in the volatility of risky assets. VIEW THE FULL PRESENTATION […] more

12th November 2018

British American Tobacco, the FTSE listed Tobacco company’s bonds and stocks have traded down today (12 Nov-18) due to a press article discussing a potential FDA ban on menthol cigarettes.  Menthols last year represented 55% of BAT’s U.S. cigarette sales by volume (Source: WSJ), which makes any potential new regulation in this area a material […] more

9th November 2018

We outline recent credit developments at Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentación (“Dia”) and Tesco as well as the impact of the ECB on bond pricing. DIA is predominantly an Iberian supermarket, whose stocks and bonds have experienced something of a roller-coaster ride since October. Unfortunately for DIA and its key stakeholders, the ride is unlikely to […] more

29th August 2018

EM – Not fixing the roof while the sun is shining…? On Friday (24 Aug), S&P downgraded Zambia to B- from B[1] and kept it on a stable outlook. At time of writing (28 Aug), all its USD bonds are trading at spreads of more than 1000bps[2], over the respective US Treasury Note. This is […] more

25th May 2018

Advertising giant WPP has been in the headlines for the past few weeks following the departure of its long term CEO, Martin Sorrell. Just this week, Ratings Agency Fitch downgraded the outlook on its bonds to negative, but kept its BBB+ (Investment Grade rating). Reasons Fitch gave for the change included: Pressures building both across […] more

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