Macro Investment Framework and Portfolio Strategy
12th May 2017
Since 2008 much has changed. The myriad of data points we used to follow with such intent on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis, have become a side show. The central banks have become the new masters of the capital markets. The once hypothetical “Greenspan Put” became a reality under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Our […] more
Death of Volatility?
12th May 2017
For the best part of 9 years the markets have been awash with monetary stimulus. Whilst there is no doubting the honourable intentions behind the introduction of Quantitative Easing, 9 years on it has become so pervasive that neither politicians nor capital markets can do without it. This wall of central bank money has brought on a collapse in interest rates, credit spreads and general market volatility. more
Reflation De-flation
19th April 2017
The Trump ‘reflation’ trade that had propelled stock markets to new highs post November ’16 looks now to have lost its lustre. The President was elected on a clear message. He was a man who could get things done. He had real world experience. Government was easy. Less than 3 months since his inauguration, the […] more
Irrational Exuberance?
14th March 2017
The momentum is growing for rate hikes in the US. Fed speakers, chief amongst them Janet Yellen, have been building the case for some time with the markets now pronouncing a 25 bps move in March as a fait accompli. Supportive of this stance has been recent economic data, which on the face of it […] more
Challenging the World Order
14th February 2017
Reflecting on a tumultuous few months, it feels as though we are not just transitioning to a new president in the United States but perhaps to a new world order. Post Bretton Woods the liberal elite has held sway over global affairs with the US occupying a dominant position. This dominance has been felt not only in terms of global trade/geopolitics but also [...] more
A Year of Discovery
11th January 2017
2016 will be long remembered as a year of great change both politically and potentially economically. Many fundamental questions have arisen, the answers to which will shape the global economy for years to come: Will Trump move the US forward (or backwards)? Can the UK implement a clear and manageable plan for Brexit? With several […] more
Staying Active
16th December 2016
Introduction Having managed fixed income portfolios for well over a decade, the dangers of passive benchmark style investing are well known to us. Indeed, we would have shared our concerns with many of you over the years. As the evolution of any credit cycle will show, investor compensation for risk is gradually eroded over time. […] more
Changes
16th November 2016
‘Rhetoric is cheap. Evidence comes more dearly’ – John Fund As 2016 continues to deliver (in spades) on the political surprise front, along with the rest of the investment universe we are attempting to assess the impact of this change on financial markets and our portfolios. Longer term evaluation requires consideration of the effect of […] more
Law of Unintended Consequences
14th October 2016
During six long years studying economics and quantitative finance, never once was the law of unintended consequences investigated with any great rigour. Market participants, it was assumed, were rational. Very rarely did we even examine economic theories from a cost/benefit perspective. Implicit in our analysis was that most convenient of phrases - ceteris parabis. It seems then that I left university with a degree in wishful thinking! more
End of Summer for Asset Prices
14th September 2016
Global Central Banks now own $24 trillion in public securities and have driven another $14 trillion’s worth into negative yields. $40 trillion in un-investable securities. Incredible. Yet still, after over 260 rate cuts and all of the $trillions of QE, developed market countries still face major economic issues. more
