Dampening the Fires of Euphoria
12th December 2017
It’s the most wonderful time of the year…..that is, when the Sell Side release their forecasts for 2018. A cursory glance across Street estimates has 2018 US GDP comfortably above 2.5%. When coupled with tame inflation and low rates, it is no wonder the so called investor wall of worry is crumbling in front of our eyes as we head into 2018. more
What’s under the rug?
20th November 2017
“QT” is upon us. Quantitative Tightening. The unwind of the greatest monetary experiment in modern history. Is this the dawn of a new era in central bank policy? Well if it is, the markets are thus far decidedly nonplussed. In what has become a familiar theme, new lows in volatility were seen in November with […] more
Liquid High
17th October 2017
Liquid High $20 trillion quantitative easing has instilled in markets a tangible sense of self-confidence. And why not, that’s a lot of liquidity. In some senses a little like the self-confidence one acquires from consuming too much alcohol. I wonder, does it impair decision making in the same way? We won’t know I suspect until […] more
The Great Distortion
15th September 2017
Central banks have had financial markets on notice for quite some time now regarding a tightening of monetary policy. As we have written in the past, the lack of volatility arising from this has been eye catching. more
The Pain of ECB Tapering is Going to be Extreme – Our CIO Talks to Citywire
5th September 2017
Last week our CIO, Steven O’Hanlon, dropped into Citywire HQ to discuss ECB market support and where the team is focusing its positions at the moment. The video is live on the Citywire Selector website, so have a watch: more
In Search of a Matador
16th August 2017
The correlation between the record breaking rise of ETFs, the inexorable march of stock markets to new highs and the fall of bond yields to new lows is striking. Backed by years of abundant liquidity, investors have become conditioned to “buy on dips”, hungrily hoovering up any temporary blip in risk asset prices. The […] more
Falling on Deaf Ears
11th July 2017
Once again central banks made all the headlines. While the Fed have for some time been sending hawkish signals in the face of weakening inflation data, recently the ECB jumped on the bandwagon. Spooked no doubt by the markets’ reaction to Draghi’s Sintra comments, the ECB moved quickly to quell fears of imminent balance sheet […] more
Human Error
16th June 2017
If there’s one thing we learned from last week’s UK election, it is this. The anti-establishment vote is alive and well. In what was something of a role reversal from 12 months ago, it was Theresa May who this time came unstuck at the hands of a frustrated electorate. Unbelievably, she may just have outdone her predecessor... more
Macro Investment Framework and Portfolio Strategy
12th May 2017
Since 2008 much has changed. The myriad of data points we used to follow with such intent on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis, have become a side show. The central banks have become the new masters of the capital markets. The once hypothetical “Greenspan Put” became a reality under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Our […] more
Death of Volatility?
12th May 2017
For the best part of 9 years the markets have been awash with monetary stimulus. Whilst there is no doubting the honourable intentions behind the introduction of Quantitative Easing, 9 years on it has become so pervasive that neither politicians nor capital markets can do without it. This wall of central bank money has brought on a collapse in interest rates, credit spreads and general market volatility. more
