30th September 2024

An aggressive Fed cutting cycle in a period of positive economic growth, asset prices at all-time highs and a near record fiscal deficit has never been done before. At the same time, two and a half years since rate rises began, the economy is starting to show signs of weakness. What to do?

Fiscal dominance changes the game. Market pricing of a ‘goldilocks’ outcome of robust growth and benign inflation is extremely optimistic – risk assets will need to readjust

Fixed income can offer value – most notably in a hard landing/recessionary scenario or in a “no landing” outcome via higher carry potential in the shorter end of the yield curve


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