13th May 2025

The structural fall in macro economic volatility (inflation and interest rates) which began
in the early 1980s, and whose decline set in post 2008, finally came to end with the
Pandemic in 2020. The most profound implication of this change can be seen in the area
of policy making, where Central Banks who for decades have been fighting deflation, are
now battling inflation. Policy mis-steps have suddenly become a lot more expensive.
Seismic economic shifts of this magnitude tend to be preceded by political upheaval –
as it was with the election of Trump 1.0 in 2016. The change in environment that resulted
from the Pandemic and the policy response to it hold great significance for the global
economy, financial markets and the broader geopolitical backdrop.

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