Changes
16th November 2016
‘Rhetoric is cheap. Evidence comes more dearly’ – John Fund As 2016 continues to deliver (in spades) on the political surprise front, along with the rest of the investment universe we are attempting to assess the impact of this change on financial markets and our portfolios. Longer term evaluation requires consideration of the effect of […] more
Law of Unintended Consequences
14th October 2016
During six long years studying economics and quantitative finance, never once was the law of unintended consequences investigated with any great rigour. Market participants, it was assumed, were rational. Very rarely did we even examine economic theories from a cost/benefit perspective. Implicit in our analysis was that most convenient of phrases - ceteris parabis. It seems then that I left university with a degree in wishful thinking! more
End of Summer for Asset Prices
14th September 2016
Global Central Banks now own $24 trillion in public securities and have driven another $14 trillion’s worth into negative yields. $40 trillion in un-investable securities. Incredible. Yet still, after over 260 rate cuts and all of the $trillions of QE, developed market countries still face major economic issues. more
Time to get Fiscal
10th August 2016
In some respects, last month’s Brexit vote seems like a lifetime ago. From its June 27 lows the FTSE has rallied over 1000 points in just over one month. Similar gains have been seen elsewhere in Europe, US, Japan. Not for the first time, central bank activity has trumped economic concerns in guiding market expectations. more
The UK’s Ill-Conceived Decision to Leave?
11th July 2016
For many, the unthinkable has happened. What is clear in the initial aftermath of the Brexit vote, is that many questions have emerged that are likely to remain unanswered for some time. What will Brexit mean for the wider Eurozone project? What are the global implications? more
Reserve Bank of India Update
21st June 2016
By now most will have been made aware of Dr Rajan’s announcement to end his term as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) effective as at September 4th 2016. As dedicated India Fixed Income investors, we at Rubrics Asset Management are naturally disappointed more
Negative territory
20th June 2016
Global bond markets are pricing in a catastrophe. Never before have global rates been this low. Not in the 1930s, not in 2008, not even during the European Banking crisis in 2011. But are things really as bad as this suggests? more
Thoughts on central bank coordination
25th May 2016
For those who saw, last month I questioned the decision making capabilities of global central banks. In fact I even went so far as to say they had lost the plot! Essentially this was in response to Janet Yellen’s complete volte-face on the issue of US rate hikes... more
March market view
4th March 2016
So far in 2016, talk of negative interest rates in the US and Japan has been the root cause of much of the markets’ concerns. Renewed central bank interest in the topic seems to have emanated from Stanley Fisher at the Davos forum in early January... more
India Remains on Credible Fiscal Consolidation Path
1st March 2016
In yesterday’s Annual Budget, Arun Jaitley (India’s Finance Minister), maintained the fiscal deficit target of 3.5%/GDP for the Fiscal Year 2017. Whilst it may well be a challenging target to meet, as the saying goes, ‘where there’s a will, there’s a way’. That the government have... more
