In Search of a Matador
16th August 2017
The correlation between the record breaking rise of ETFs, the inexorable march of stock markets to new highs and the fall of bond yields to new lows is striking. Backed by years of abundant liquidity, investors have become conditioned to “buy on dips”, hungrily hoovering up any temporary blip in risk asset prices. The […] more
Falling on Deaf Ears
11th July 2017
Once again central banks made all the headlines. While the Fed have for some time been sending hawkish signals in the face of weakening inflation data, recently the ECB jumped on the bandwagon. Spooked no doubt by the markets’ reaction to Draghi’s Sintra comments, the ECB moved quickly to quell fears of imminent balance sheet […] more
Human Error
16th June 2017
If there’s one thing we learned from last week’s UK election, it is this. The anti-establishment vote is alive and well. In what was something of a role reversal from 12 months ago, it was Theresa May who this time came unstuck at the hands of a frustrated electorate. Unbelievably, she may just have outdone her predecessor... more
Macro Investment Framework and Portfolio Strategy
12th May 2017
Since 2008 much has changed. The myriad of data points we used to follow with such intent on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis, have become a side show. The central banks have become the new masters of the capital markets. The once hypothetical “Greenspan Put” became a reality under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Our […] more
Death of Volatility?
12th May 2017
For the best part of 9 years the markets have been awash with monetary stimulus. Whilst there is no doubting the honourable intentions behind the introduction of Quantitative Easing, 9 years on it has become so pervasive that neither politicians nor capital markets can do without it. This wall of central bank money has brought on a collapse in interest rates, credit spreads and general market volatility. more
Reflation De-flation
19th April 2017
The Trump ‘reflation’ trade that had propelled stock markets to new highs post November ’16 looks now to have lost its lustre. The President was elected on a clear message. He was a man who could get things done. He had real world experience. Government was easy. Less than 3 months since his inauguration, the […] more
Irrational Exuberance?
14th March 2017
The momentum is growing for rate hikes in the US. Fed speakers, chief amongst them Janet Yellen, have been building the case for some time with the markets now pronouncing a 25 bps move in March as a fait accompli. Supportive of this stance has been recent economic data, which on the face of it […] more
Challenging the World Order
14th February 2017
Reflecting on a tumultuous few months, it feels as though we are not just transitioning to a new president in the United States but perhaps to a new world order. Post Bretton Woods the liberal elite has held sway over global affairs with the US occupying a dominant position. This dominance has been felt not only in terms of global trade/geopolitics but also [...] more
A Year of Discovery
11th January 2017
2016 will be long remembered as a year of great change both politically and potentially economically. Many fundamental questions have arisen, the answers to which will shape the global economy for years to come: Will Trump move the US forward (or backwards)? Can the UK implement a clear and manageable plan for Brexit? With several […] more
Staying Active
16th December 2016
Introduction Having managed fixed income portfolios for well over a decade, the dangers of passive benchmark style investing are well known to us. Indeed, we would have shared our concerns with many of you over the years. As the evolution of any credit cycle will show, investor compensation for risk is gradually eroded over time. […] more
