27th June 2025

The bond market at present is facing competing narratives – on the one hand the
prospect of higher inflation from tariffs, yet more debt issuance from the Big
Beautiful Bill, and general negativity towards the US Dollar (and broader US
assets).
On the other, there is the growing sense that the economy is on the cusp
of a material slowdown, with real rates in restrictive territory and a downside for
risk assets that looms ever larger.

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