8th August 2025

The US economy is in the longest period of expansion post yield curve inversion
(38 months) on record. While the weight of higher interest rates has been a major
burden for certain cohorts, aggregate growth has continued owing to the
unprecedented levels of government spending, immigration and combined fiscal
and monetary support.
The dichotomy that has emerged between the economic haves and have nots
is evident in the notable earnings disparity between S&P 500 companies and
those of the Russell 2000, or the delinquency rates or fixed rate mortgages (asset owners)
vs floating rate credit cards (weaker borrowers).
Problems however appear to be working their way up the food chain.

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