12th May 2017
Since 2008 much has changed. The myriad of data points we used to follow with such intent on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis, have become a side show. The central banks have become the new masters of the capital markets. The once hypothetical “Greenspan Put” became a reality under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Our greatest challenge as asset managers today is making sense of this environment.
Many of the current macroeconomic strategies developed and employed by central bankers are untested on this large a scale. At Rubrics we still believe fundamentals are the key drivers of asset prices over the medium to long term. Undoubtedly the world has suffered from overcapacity (excess supply) and debt induced demand for a long time. The rebalancing away from this is certainly underway but it has not occurred in a straight line. Furthermore there are still many pitfalls policy makers and investors can and will fall into.
Our macro economic research is based upon two goals. Firstly, attempting to understand the general direction of the global economy and its key growth and inflation trends. Secondly but of equal importance, understanding the direction and movement of liquidity flows (private and public). Due to the significant part global central banks have played in the manipulation of both economic conditions and asset prices, our job has not been easy with few if any clear answers.
In these macro packs, we attempt to examine the factors we think will be most prevalent to fixed income markets over the coming months. This top down work is supplemented with rigorous bottom up analysis from our investment team to create a framework on which we can build our investment process. Click on the link below to download the pack: