19th April 2017

portrait of  Donald John Trump candidate president low poly art background USA

The Trump ‘reflation’ trade that had propelled stock markets to new highs post November ’16 looks now to have lost its lustre. The President was elected on a clear message. He was a man who could get things done. He had real world experience.  Government was easy. Less than 3 months since his inauguration, the […] more

14th March 2017

Close-up of George Washington on a one dollar bill

The momentum is growing for rate hikes in the US. Fed speakers, chief amongst them Janet Yellen, have been building the case for some time with the markets now pronouncing a 25 bps move in March   as a fait accompli.  Supportive of this stance has been recent economic data, which on the face of it […] more

14th February 2017

RISK

Reflecting on a tumultuous few months, it feels as though we are not just transitioning to a new president in the United States but perhaps to a new world order. Post Bretton Woods the liberal elite has held sway over global affairs with the US occupying a dominant position. This dominance has been felt not only in terms of global trade/geopolitics but also [...] more

11th January 2017

Vintage still life. Vintage compass lies on an ancient world map.

2016 will be long remembered as a year of great change both politically and potentially economically. Many fundamental questions have arisen, the answers to which will shape the global economy for years to come: Will Trump move the US forward (or backwards)? Can the UK implement a clear and manageable plan for Brexit? With several […] more

16th December 2016

rubrics-changes

Introduction Having managed fixed income portfolios for well over a decade, the dangers of passive benchmark style investing are well known to us. Indeed, we would have shared our concerns with many of you over the years. As the evolution of any credit cycle will show, investor compensation for risk is gradually eroded over time. […] more

16th November 2016

Washington, D.C. at the White House.

‘Rhetoric is cheap. Evidence comes more dearly’ – John Fund As 2016 continues to deliver (in spades) on the political surprise front, along with the rest of the investment universe we are attempting to assess the impact of this change on financial markets and our portfolios. Longer term evaluation requires consideration of the effect of […] more

14th October 2016

Illustration of a traditional bank with classic columns

During six long years studying economics and quantitative finance, never once was the law of unintended consequences investigated with any great rigour. Market participants, it was assumed, were rational. Very rarely did we even examine economic theories from a cost/benefit perspective. Implicit in our analysis was that most convenient of phrases - ceteris parabis. It seems then that I left university with a degree in wishful thinking! more

14th September 2016

rubrics-leaves-cropped

Global Central Banks now own $24 trillion in public securities and have driven another $14 trillion’s worth into negative yields. $40 trillion in un-investable securities. Incredible. Yet still, after over 260 rate cuts and all of the $trillions of QE, developed market countries still face major economic issues. more

10th August 2016

Rubrics logo for news2

In some respects, last month’s Brexit vote seems like a lifetime ago. From its June 27 lows the FTSE has rallied over 1000 points in just over one month. Similar gains have been seen elsewhere in Europe, US, Japan. Not for the first time, central bank activity has trumped economic concerns in guiding market expectations. more

11th July 2016

Great Britain and EU, Brexit referendum concept

For many, the unthinkable has happened. What is clear in the initial aftermath of the Brexit vote, is that many questions have emerged that are likely to remain unanswered for some time. What will Brexit mean for the wider Eurozone project? What are the global implications? more

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