16th June 2017

Regrets wrong doing. Woman, slapping hand on head having duh moment

If there’s one thing we learned from last week’s UK election, it is this. The anti-establishment vote is alive and well. In what was something of a role reversal from 12 months ago, it was Theresa May who this time came unstuck at the hands of a frustrated electorate. Unbelievably, she may just have outdone her predecessor... more

12th May 2017

Macro_Investment_Pack_FC - LC

Since 2008 much has changed. The myriad of data points we used to follow with such intent on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis, have become a side show. The central banks have become the new masters of the capital markets. The once hypothetical “Greenspan Put” became a reality under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Our […] more

12th May 2017

perfect sky and water of indian ocean

For the best part of 9 years the markets have been awash with monetary stimulus. Whilst there is no doubting the honourable intentions behind the introduction of Quantitative Easing, 9 years on it has become so pervasive that neither politicians nor capital markets can do without it. This wall of central bank money has brought on a collapse in interest rates, credit spreads and general market volatility. more

19th April 2017

portrait of  Donald John Trump candidate president low poly art background USA

The Trump ‘reflation’ trade that had propelled stock markets to new highs post November ’16 looks now to have lost its lustre. The President was elected on a clear message. He was a man who could get things done. He had real world experience.  Government was easy. Less than 3 months since his inauguration, the […] more

14th March 2017

Close-up of George Washington on a one dollar bill

The momentum is growing for rate hikes in the US. Fed speakers, chief amongst them Janet Yellen, have been building the case for some time with the markets now pronouncing a 25 bps move in March   as a fait accompli.  Supportive of this stance has been recent economic data, which on the face of it […] more

14th February 2017

RISK

Reflecting on a tumultuous few months, it feels as though we are not just transitioning to a new president in the United States but perhaps to a new world order. Post Bretton Woods the liberal elite has held sway over global affairs with the US occupying a dominant position. This dominance has been felt not only in terms of global trade/geopolitics but also [...] more

11th January 2017

Vintage still life. Vintage compass lies on an ancient world map.

2016 will be long remembered as a year of great change both politically and potentially economically. Many fundamental questions have arisen, the answers to which will shape the global economy for years to come: Will Trump move the US forward (or backwards)? Can the UK implement a clear and manageable plan for Brexit? With several […] more

16th December 2016

rubrics-changes

Introduction Having managed fixed income portfolios for well over a decade, the dangers of passive benchmark style investing are well known to us. Indeed, we would have shared our concerns with many of you over the years. As the evolution of any credit cycle will show, investor compensation for risk is gradually eroded over time. […] more

16th November 2016

Washington, D.C. at the White House.

‘Rhetoric is cheap. Evidence comes more dearly’ – John Fund As 2016 continues to deliver (in spades) on the political surprise front, along with the rest of the investment universe we are attempting to assess the impact of this change on financial markets and our portfolios. Longer term evaluation requires consideration of the effect of […] more

14th October 2016

Illustration of a traditional bank with classic columns

During six long years studying economics and quantitative finance, never once was the law of unintended consequences investigated with any great rigour. Market participants, it was assumed, were rational. Very rarely did we even examine economic theories from a cost/benefit perspective. Implicit in our analysis was that most convenient of phrases - ceteris parabis. It seems then that I left university with a degree in wishful thinking! more

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